Capital and counterparties
Trace changes in sovereign, credit, liquidity, funding, market, and counterparty exposure across the portfolio.
GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE
Geopolitics is not a separate risk.
It travels through the institution.
Khaos converts shifts in state power, trade, sanctions, conflict, regulation, and regional alignment into an operating picture leaders can use before exposure becomes consequence.
KH01
POWERTECHCAPITALSYSTEMSPEOPLEGOVERNANCEFor banks and critical institutions, the decisive question is rarely whether geopolitical conditions have changed. It is how that change will move through counterparties, capital, suppliers, cloud and telecom dependencies, regulation, cyber activity, customers, and public trust — and where the institution still has room to act.
Reference: ECB: how geopolitical risk reaches banksHOW THE RISK TRAVELSThe transmission pathways
The transmission pathways
leaders have to connect.
Trade and supply systems
Connect export controls, sanctions, tariffs, shipping constraints, strategic commodities, and supplier concentration.
Technology and infrastructure
Map geopolitical pressure into cloud, telecom, subsea cable, data, semiconductor, energy, and third-party dependencies.
Governance and trust
Translate external shifts into board decisions, risk appetite, stakeholder communication, and defensible executive action.
EXECUTIVE QUESTIONSThe questions that change
The questions that change
the quality of the decision.
- 01
Which geopolitical developments can materially change our risk profile, and through which channels?
- 02
Where are direct exposures masking deeper operational or third-party dependencies?
- 03
What indicators would tell us that the decision window is closing?
- 04
Which actions remain reversible — and which commitments would create path dependency?
THE KHAOS METHODFrom signal to
From signal to
accountable action.
Frame
Define the decision, time horizon, exposure boundaries, and assumptions that matter.
Connect
Build the cross-domain map linking geopolitical signals to institutional systems.
Stress-test
Run scenarios through balance-sheet, operational, regulatory, cyber, and stakeholder consequences.
Move
Identify decision triggers, accountable owners, communication requirements, and next actions.